Carney’s Liberals Maintain Edge as Canada’s Tight Election Nears Conclusion

The Conservative Party steadily eroded the advantage held by Mark Carney’s Liberals in the final days of Canada’s election campaign, though surveys still indicate a likely Liberal victory in Monday’s vote. Abacus Data’s final likely-voter model pegged Liberal support at 41%, just two points ahead of the Conservatives, narrowing from a five-point lead reported on April 21.

Trump’s Provocations Dominate the Final Campaign Days

A key question throughout the 37-day campaign was who could best defend Canada against U.S. President Donald Trump’s provocations, with polls consistently favoring Carney. Early Monday, Trump again suggested annexing Canada as the 51st U.S. state, posting inflammatory remarks on social media as voters in eastern Canada headed to the polls.

Poilievre Gains Traction on Economic Issues

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre emphasized the need for change after nearly a decade of Liberal governance, focusing on cost of living, housing, and fiscal management. Abacus polling shows momentum for a “change vote” has risen since early April, particularly among voters concerned with economic issues.

China Demands Total Tariff Removal and Denies Trade Talks with the U.S.

China has demanded that the United States completely total tariff removal unilateral and denied that trade…

Older Voters Prioritize U.S. Relations

Managing relations with Trump emerged as a paramount concern among voters over 60, a demographic known for high turnout. Conservatives targeted this group with new TV ads featuring older citizens calling for leadership change, hoping to capitalize on voter anxiety.

Final Campaign Pushes Across Battleground Provinces

Both Carney and Poilievre traveled extensively across Canada during the campaign’s final stretch, holding rallies from Toronto’s suburbs to British Columbia’s coast. Carney made strategic appearances in Ontario and swiftly toured western provinces to consolidate urban support over the weekend.

Vancouver Tragedy Casts a Shadow Over Election Eve

A devastating car-ramming attack at a Vancouver street festival left 11 dead and dozens injured Saturday night. The attack subdued the final hours of campaigning. Carney suspended events to address the nation and meet with local leaders. He also expressed condolences to the victims and their families.

Liberals Benefit from Electoral Map Dynamics

Despite a tighter popular vote margin, the Liberals remain favored under Canada’s first-past-the-post system. Liberal support is more evenly spread, leading to more seats per vote, while Conservatives dominate rural western areas. Strong Liberal leads in Quebec and narrow advantages in Ontario strengthen their electoral prospects.